1149.2 -114.89 (-10.0%) Sell

EXCELINDUS is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

15 min read

EXCEL INDUSTRIES LTD delivered massive losses on Friday. It returned -10.0% to close at 1149.2. It is currently trading -38% below it's 52 week high of 1857.35.

[Themes containing EXCELINDUS]

EXCELINDUS is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 3 bearish signals have generated a profit of +11.22% for investors.


EXCELINDUS has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 17 Sep, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, EXCELINDUS outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days EXCELINDUS outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months EXCELINDUS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.39% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.38%) was on Wednesday, 12 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -10.0%) was on Friday, 18 Jan, 2019. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 1 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +19.25% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 1 Jan, 2019 and ended on 7 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -5.55% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, EXCELINDUS delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. EXCELINDUS delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. EXCELINDUS significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +57.0% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. EXCELINDUS and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both EXCELINDUS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Don't always trust what you see. In a bull market even a duck looks like a swan.
-- Vijay Kedia

EXCELINDUS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in EXCELINDUS's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 8 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that EXCELINDUS has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that EXCELINDUS is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than EXCELINDUS. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than EXCELINDUS in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than EXCELINDUS.

On a general note (since you are interested in EXCELINDUS), two instruments that have delivered similar performance as EXCELINDUS are NCLIND and MAITHANALL. They are suitable as good alternative investment candidates that can diversify your portfolio.

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