AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED

1594.5 +11.68 (+0.73%) Buy

DMART continues it's uptrend, although on a weaker note

13 min read

AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED ranked better than it's peers on Friday. It delivered +0.73% to close at 1594.5. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 90% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.13%.

[Themes containing DMART]

Buy-and-Hold investors in DMART experienced a maximum drawdown of -26.13% over the last three months. It delivered +4.57% during this bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +3.1%.

Trend

DMART has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 24 Mar, 2017 to 1 Aug, 2018. Over the last 1 year and 9 months, DMART outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days DMART outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months DMART delivered losses on 54% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +7.06%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.81%) was on Monday, 15 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 losing days, which started on 19 Sep, 2018 and ended on 3 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -16.27% of investor capital.

During the last year DMART had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. DMART returned profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. DMART significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Feb 2018, when it returned +14.28% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. DMART had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -16.85%. It is interesting to note that both DMART and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Money is only a tool. It will take you wherever you wish, but it will not replace you as the driver.
-- Ayn Rand

DMART is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in DMART's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 9 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that DMART has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that DMART is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than DMART. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than DMART in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than DMART.

Based on your interest in DMART you may find it interesting to know that AARTIIND, HATSUN and LTI are mid caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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