DILIP BUILDCON LIMITED is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Wednesday. It delivered -2.53% to close at 358.05 which is it's 52 week low, down -70% from it's 52 week high.
DBL is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for DBL's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -11.67%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to DBL.
DBL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 15 Nov, 2016 to 11 Apr, 2018. Over the last 2 years 5 months and 12 days, DBL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days DBL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.
During the last three months DBL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.16% per day. It's best return during this period (of +9.65%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.9%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 21 Dec, 2018 and ended on 31 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -3.78% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw DBL's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. During the last year, DBL delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. DBL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -33.63% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. DBL had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered +14.38%.
Security depends not so much upon how much you have, as upon how much you can do without.
-- Joseph Wood Krutch
DBL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in DBL's volatility from 26 Oct, 2018 to 15 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that DBL has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect DBL to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes DBL a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than DBL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than DBL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than DBL.
Based on your interest in DBL you may find it interesting to know that BAJFINANCE has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.
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