CYIENT investors doing a reality check
18 Jan, 201913 min read
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CYIENT LIMITED significantly underperformed on Friday. It returned -2.76% to close at 612.1. It is currently trading -30% below it's 52 week high of 875.1.
CYIENT is currently in a up trend. Over the last three months Buy-and-Hold has been a better strategy (returning -6.34%) for CYIENT's investors than trading long signals.
CYIENT has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 11 May, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, CYIENT underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days CYIENT underperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the NIFTY-50 index.
During the last three months CYIENT was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.09% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.62%) was on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.56%) was on Monday, 22 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 24 Oct, 2018 and went on till 29 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +2.46% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 20 Dec, 2018 and ended on 26 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.81% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, CYIENT delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. CYIENT delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. CYIENT was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -18.32% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. CYIENT and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months.
"Price is what you pay and value is what you get.
CYIENT is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in CYIENT's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 10 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CYIENT has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CYIENT. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than CYIENT in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CYIENT.
On a general note (since you are interested in CYIENT), three instruments that deserve special mention are ~CHEMICALS, BRITANNIA and BAJFINANCE. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.
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