Profit booking on the minds of CRISIL investors as it ranks better than it's peers but, has not managed to breakout
18 Jan, 201913 min read
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CRISIL LTD managed to marginally outperform the broader market on Friday. It gained +0.56% to close at 1663.9. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 31% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.
CRISIL is currently in a up trend. The current bullish signal has generated a profit of +5.86% for CRISIL's investors in the last three months.
CRISIL has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, CRISIL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 51% days.
CRISIL was profitable on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.21% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.5%, during this period, on Monday, 22 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 24 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +10.93% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 19 Nov, 2018 and ended on 21 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -0.93% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, CRISIL delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. CRISIL delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. CRISIL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -15.25% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. CRISIL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jul 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -17.52%. It is interesting to note that both CRISIL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
It's good to have money and the things that money can buy, but It's good, too, to check up once in a while and make sure that you haven't lost the things that money can't buy.
-- George Lorimer
CRISIL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in CRISIL's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 28 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CRISIL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that CRISIL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CRISIL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than CRISIL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CRISIL.
On a general note (since you are interested in CRISIL), CUB is a mid cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.
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