COUNCODOS investors herd to book profits while the going is good

COUNTRY CONDO'S LIMITED delivered massive losses today. It lost -4.0% to close at 2.4. It's recent 5 day performance has been +6.38%, -2.08%, -4.0%, 0.0% and +4.17%.

[Themes containing COUNCODOS]

COUNCODOS showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period COUNCODOS lost -4.0% and saw a maximum drawdown of -29.69%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in COUNCODOS till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

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Volatility

Return distribution

COUNCODOS has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 4 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, COUNCODOS underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months COUNCODOS delivered losses on 62% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +9.43%) was on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -10.0%) was on Tuesday, 20 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 7 Nov, 2018 and went on till 13 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +27.72% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 16 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -24.26% of investor capital.

COUNCODOS had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, COUNCODOS underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. COUNCODOS was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -24.36% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. COUNCODOS had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Mar 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -49.97%. It is interesting to note that both COUNCODOS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If we command our wealth, we shall be rich and free. If our wealth commands us, we are poor indeed.
-- Edmund Burke

COUNCODOS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in COUNCODOS's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 11 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that COUNCODOS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect COUNCODOS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes COUNCODOS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than COUNCODOS. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than COUNCODOS in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than COUNCODOS.

On a general note (since you are interested in COUNCODOS), three small cap instruments that deserve special mention are ASTRAZEN, VINATIORGA and IGARASHI. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.