CONSO. FIN. & HOLD. LTD.

49.15 +1.71 (+3.47%) Sell

CONSOFINVT does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

14 min read

CONSO. FIN. & HOLD. LTD. ranked among the best performers today. It delivered +3.47% to close at 49.15. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.53%, -2.78%, -1.32%, +2.6% and -5.97%.

[Themes containing CONSOFINVT]

CONSOFINVT showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period CONSOFINVT delivered -2.67% and saw a maximum drawdown of -15.7%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in CONSOFINVT till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

CONSOFINVT has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 8 Jan, 2016 to 24 Jul, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, CONSOFINVT underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months CONSOFINVT was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.01% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.52%) was on Friday, 30 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.09%) was on Tuesday, 13 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 4 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +4.8%) started on 24 Oct, 2018 and went on till 29 Oct, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -7.37%) started on 21 Nov, 2018 and went on till 27 Nov, 2018.

The last 12 months saw CONSOFINVT's investors making profits in 2 months and incurring losses in 10 months. CONSOFINVT was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. CONSOFINVT significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +12.5% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. CONSOFINVT had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -42.01%.

I understand that finance can be very complex.
-- Kevin Harrington

CONSOFINVT is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CONSOFINVT's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 28 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CONSOFINVT has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that CONSOFINVT is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CONSOFINVT. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than CONSOFINVT in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CONSOFINVT.

Based on your interest in CONSOFINVT you may find it interesting to know that LINCOLN, INDIACEM and ASHIANA have all performed similar to CONSOFINVT and qualify as alternative investment candidates that must be evaluated for diversification.

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