CESC LTD

689.0 +2.86 (+0.42%) Buy

CESC continues it's uptrend, although on a weaker note

13 min read

CESC LTD performed better than the broader market on Friday. It returned +0.42% to close at 689.0. It is currently trading -40% below it's 52 week high of 1150.0.

[Themes containing CESC]

CESC showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period CESC lost -24.09% and saw a maximum drawdown of -27.98%. There were 4 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +8.81% to investors.

Trend

CESC has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, CESC outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days CESC outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months CESC was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.4% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.59%) was on Friday, 11 Jan, 2019. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -17.4%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 5 Dec, 2018 and went on till 11 Dec, 2018. The trend delivered -3.89% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 10 Jan, 2019 and ended on 16 Jan, 2019. This bullish trend delivered +7.46% to investors.

CESC had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, number of profitable months of CESC and NIFTY-50 index were the same. CESC was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -19.81% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. CESC and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both CESC and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If you took our top fifteen decisions out, we'd have a pretty average record. It wasn't hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience. You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigor.
-- Charlie Munger

CESC is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in CESC's volatility from 30 Oct, 2018 to 10 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CESC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect CESC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes CESC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in CESC derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Straddle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CESC. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than CESC in your portfolio. CESC usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in CESC), VINATIORGA is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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