CERA outperformed the broader market today. On a longer term basis, investors in CERA SANITARYWARE LTD made +0.1% per day. Friday's performance of +2.79% was a outperformance compared to it's daily average.
CERA showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period CERA increased by +11.55% and saw a maximum drawdown of -7.11%. There were 2 long signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +8.8% to investors.
CERA has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 4 Dec, 2017 to 18 Dec, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, CERA underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days CERA underperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the NIFTY-50 index.
During the last three months CERA delivered losses on 54% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +5.79%) was on Monday, 7 Jan, 2019. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.86%) was on Friday, 11 Jan, 2019. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 profitable days, which started on 11 Dec, 2018 and went on till 17 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +2.43% to investors.
The last 12 months saw CERA's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. CERA was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. CERA significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jan 2019, when it returned +13.09% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. CERA had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -21.27%. It is interesting to note that both CERA and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
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CERA is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CERA's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CERA has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that CERA is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CERA. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than CERA in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CERA.
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