CENTURY PLYBOARDS (I) LTD

179.15 -5.48 (-3.06%) Buy

CENTURYPLY investors take a moment to reassess their portfolio allocation

13 min read

CENTURY PLYBOARDS (I) LTD significantly underperformed on Friday. It delivered -3.06% to close at 179.15. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 67% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing CENTURYPLY]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CENTURYPLY experienced a maximum drawdown of -13.33% over the last three months. It delivered -5.24% during this bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals.

Trend

CENTURYPLY has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 9 Apr, 2018 to 19 Nov, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, CENTURYPLY underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days CENTURYPLY underperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months CENTURYPLY delivered profits on 52% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +5.4%) was on Thursday, 10 Jan, 2019. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.89%) was on Monday, 22 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 21 Nov, 2018 and went on till 29 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +8.05% to investors.

The last 12 months saw CENTURYPLY's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. CENTURYPLY was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. CENTURYPLY was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -18.8% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. CENTURYPLY had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 9 straight months (from Mar 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -58.33%. It is interesting to note that both CENTURYPLY and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

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CENTURYPLY is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in CENTURYPLY's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 7 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CENTURYPLY has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that CENTURYPLY is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CENTURYPLY. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than CENTURYPLY in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CENTURYPLY.

Based on your interest in CENTURYPLY you may find it interesting to know that IEX is highly volatile and investors investing in it must take extreme caution. Consider either reducing your exposure to IEX or sufficiently diversifying your portfolio.

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