CCL investors update their stop-losses higher
18 Jan, 201913 min read
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CCL PRODUCTS (I) LTD outperformed on Friday. It surged by +3.01% to close at 272.45. It is currently trading +20% above it's 52 week low of 225.95 and is down only -13% from it's 52 week high.
Buy-and-Hold investors in CCL experienced a maximum drawdown of -7.23% over the last three months. It surged by +11.87% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +1.93%.
CCL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 2 Mar, 2017 to 8 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, CCL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.
CCL returned losses on 51% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.19% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.77%, during this period, on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +17.48% to investors.
During the last year CCL had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. CCL returned profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. CCL significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +12.45% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. CCL had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 4 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered +8.75%. It is interesting to note that both CCL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
"There is a huge amount of freedom that is derived from not fighting the market.
CCL is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in CCL's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 4 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CCL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
CCL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, CCL must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CCL.
Based on your interest in CCL you may find it interesting to know that BRITANNIA, ~MKTCAP201TO250 and NIFTY-GS-15YRPLUS have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.
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