CASTROL INDIA LIMITED delivered lacklustre performance on Friday. It fell by -0.48% to close at 165.65. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 38% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.
CASTROLIND showed a strong bullish trend over the last 3 months. During this period CASTROLIND surged by +17.73% and saw a maximum drawdown of -8.03%. There were 2 long signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +1.85% to investors.
CASTROLIND has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 12 Jan, 2016 to 28 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, CASTROLIND underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 51% days.
CASTROLIND was profitable on 52% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.28% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +5.93%, during this period, on Tuesday, 15 Jan, 2019. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.53% of investor capital.
During the last year CASTROLIND had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. CASTROLIND returned profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. CASTROLIND was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -12.44% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. CASTROLIND had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 4 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered +13.4%. It is interesting to note that both CASTROLIND and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
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CASTROLIND is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in CASTROLIND's volatility from 26 Oct, 2018 to 11 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CASTROLIND has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that CASTROLIND is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
Investors trading in CASTROLIND derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Call' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.
CASTROLIND has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, CASTROLIND must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CASTROLIND.
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