BLUE DART EXPRESS LTD underperformed broader market on Friday. It delivered -0.29% to close at 3327.15. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 28% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.
Buy-and-Hold investors in BLUEDART experienced a maximum drawdown of -6.21% over the last three months. It surged by +18.89% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +11.21%.
BLUEDART has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 7 Jan, 2016 to 14 Sep, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, BLUEDART underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.
BLUEDART was profitable on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.29% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +4.6%, during this period, on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 2 Jan, 2019 and ended on 11 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -4.81% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw BLUEDART's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. BLUEDART was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. BLUEDART was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -13.59% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. BLUEDART had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -29.26%. It is interesting to note that both BLUEDART and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
A highly developed stock exchange cannot be a club for the cult of ethics.
-- Max Weber
BLUEDART is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in BLUEDART's volatility from 30 Oct, 2018 to 10 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BLUEDART has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that BLUEDART is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BLUEDART. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than BLUEDART in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BLUEDART.
Based on your interest in BLUEDART you may find it interesting to know that BRITANNIA, BAJFINANCE and ~MKTCAP201TO250 have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.
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