1420.0 -8.35 (-0.59%) Sell

BANARISUG continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

15 min read

BANARISUG delivered lacklustre performance today. On a longer term basis, investors in BANNARI AMMAN SUGARS LTD made +0.07% per day. Wednesday's performance of -0.59% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

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Buy-and-Hold investors in BANARISUG experienced a maximum drawdown of -23.06% over the last three months. It fell by -19.1% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +14.54%.


BANARISUG has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 7 Nov, 2017 to 21 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, BANARISUG outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days BANARISUG outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months BANARISUG was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.33% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.64%) was on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.74%) was on Wednesday, 5 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 losing days, which started on 13 Nov, 2018 and ended on 26 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -13.03% of investor capital.

During the last year BANARISUG had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. Profitable number of months of BANARISUG and NIFTY-50 index were the same. BANARISUG significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Oct 2018, when it returned +13.41% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. BANARISUG had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -15.68%. It is interesting to note that both BANARISUG and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

There is nothing wrong with changing a plan when the situation has changed.
-- Seneca

BANARISUG is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BANARISUG's volatility from 7 Nov, 2018 to 13 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BANARISUG has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that BANARISUG is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BANARISUG. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than BANARISUG in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BANARISUG.

Based on your interest in BANARISUG you may find it interesting to know that SMARTLINK, HINDUJAVEN and BASML have all performed similar to BANARISUG and qualify as alternative investment candidates that must be evaluated for diversification.

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