BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LTD

108.75 -1.77 (-1.63%) Buy

Stop-loss on the minds of BALRAMCHIN investors as it underperforms

13 min read

BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LTD ranked among the worst performers on Friday. It fell by -1.63% to close at 108.75. It is currently trading +82% above it's 52 week low of 59.65 and is down only -19% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing BALRAMCHIN]

Buy-and-Hold investors in BALRAMCHIN experienced a maximum drawdown of -17.29% over the last three months. It delivered +11.77% during this strong bullish trending period. There were no short signals during this period, while the long signal generated good profits of +11.77% for investors.

Trend

BALRAMCHIN has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 7 Aug, 2017 to 16 May, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, BALRAMCHIN outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days BALRAMCHIN outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months BALRAMCHIN was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.21% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.53%) was on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.39%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 profitable days, which started on 24 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend returned +14.1% to investors.

During the last year BALRAMCHIN had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. BALRAMCHIN returned profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. BALRAMCHIN significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Oct 2018, when it returned +46.28% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. BALRAMCHIN had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -49.56%. It is interesting to note that both BALRAMCHIN and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I understand that finance can be very complex.
-- Kevin Harrington

BALRAMCHIN is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in BALRAMCHIN's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 28 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BALRAMCHIN has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that BALRAMCHIN is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

Investors trading in BALRAMCHIN derivatives at this moment can consider 'Married Put' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

BALRAMCHIN has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, BALRAMCHIN must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BALRAMCHIN.

Based on your interest in BALRAMCHIN you may find it interesting to know that ~MKTCAP201TO250 and BAJFINANCE have both shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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