BAJAJ HINDUSTHAN SUGAR LT

8.95 -0.2 (-2.19%) Buy

BAJAJHIND investors doing a reality check

13 min read

BAJAJ HINDUSTHAN SUGAR LT ranked among the worst performers on Friday. It lost -2.19% to close at 8.95. It is currently trading -45% below it's 52 week high of 16.4.

[Themes containing BAJAJHIND]

BAJAJHIND is currently in a up trend. The previous long signal in BAJAJHIND has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are invested in BAJAJHIND at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.

Trend

BAJAJHIND has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 14 Jun, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, BAJAJHIND underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 60% days.

During the last three months BAJAJHIND was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.17% per day. It's best return during this period (of +9.5%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.88%) was on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 23 Oct, 2018 and went on till 29 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.52% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 13 Nov, 2018 and ended on 26 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -14.95% of investor capital.

BAJAJHIND had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, number of profitable months of BAJAJHIND and NIFTY-50 index were the same. BAJAJHIND was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -30.16% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. BAJAJHIND had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -69.64%. It is interesting to note that both BAJAJHIND and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

But having said that, what's happening with campaign finance reform and our political culture is devastating.
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BAJAJHIND is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in BAJAJHIND's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 31 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BAJAJHIND has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that BAJAJHIND is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BAJAJHIND. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than BAJAJHIND in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BAJAJHIND.

On a general note (since you are interested in BAJAJHIND), two instruments that deserve special mention are MERCK and LTI. They have significantly outperformed the overall market this year.

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