ASTRAL investors not showing any loss of confidence as it pauses to catch its breath

ASTRAL POLY TECH LTD performed worse than the broader market on Friday. It delivered -1.15% to close at 1099.1. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 73% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

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Buy-and-Hold investors in ASTRAL experienced a maximum drawdown of -7.25% over the last three months. It delivered +20.82% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +12.03%.

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ASTRAL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 30 Jan, 2017 to 10 Jan, 2019. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ASTRAL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days ASTRAL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months ASTRAL was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.33% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.94%) was on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.87%) was on Monday, 5 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 profitable days, which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +15.97% to investors.

The last 12 months saw ASTRAL's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. During the last year, ASTRAL delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. ASTRAL significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Feb 2018, when it returned +13.51% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ASTRAL had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +17.22%. It is interesting to note that both ASTRAL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I'm involved in the stock market, which is fun and, sometimes, very painful.
-- Regis Philbin

ASTRAL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ASTRAL's volatility from 19 Oct, 2018 to 24 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ASTRAL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ASTRAL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

ASTRAL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ASTRAL must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ASTRAL.

Based on your interest in ASTRAL you may find it interesting to know that HATSUN, NIFTY50-DIV-POINT and TIDEWATER are all extremely risky investment candidates that must be evaluated carefully. Investors with low risk profile are better off avoiding them till their performance becomes more consistent.