Don't buy ASTEC now, it is underperforming the market

ASTEC showed weakness today. On a longer term basis, investors in ASTEC LIFESCIENCES LTD made +0.28% per day. Friday's performance of -0.02% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

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ASTEC showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ASTEC fell by -12.8% and saw a maximum drawdown of -16.62%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +11.56%.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

ASTEC has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 1 Feb, 2016 to 20 Dec, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 13 days, ASTEC outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 45% days. Which indicates that on days ASTEC outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months ASTEC was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.21% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.28%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.0%) was on Friday, 21 Sep, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 19 Nov, 2018 and ended on 27 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.03% of investor capital.

During the last year ASTEC had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. Profitable number of months of ASTEC and NIFTY-50 index were the same. ASTEC significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +16.99% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ASTEC had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -27.01%. It is interesting to note that both ASTEC and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give.
-- Winston Churchill

ASTEC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ASTEC's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 22 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ASTEC has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ASTEC is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ASTEC. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ASTEC in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ASTEC.

Based on your interest in ASTEC you may find it interesting to know that IGARASHI is highly volatile and investors investing in it must take extreme caution. Consider either reducing your exposure to IGARASHI or sufficiently diversifying your portfolio.