Want to invest in ARVIND? Avoid as it delivered massive losses

ARVIND LIMITED delivered massive losses today. It returned -1.43% to close at 93.1. It's recent 5 day performance has been -2.02%, +1.37%, +0.05%, -2.56% and -0.76%.

[Themes containing ARVIND]

ARVIND showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ARVIND returned -71.19% and saw a maximum drawdown of -73.08%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +62.75% to investors.

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ARVIND has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 2 Nov, 2016. ARVIND is currently at it's worst performance to the NIFTY-50 index and therefore does not make a good investment candidate. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ARVIND underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months ARVIND was mostly loss making and delivered on average -1.32% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.01%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -65.09%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +8.14% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 20 Dec, 2018 and ended on 27 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.58% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, ARVIND delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. ARVIND delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. ARVIND was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -70.0% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ARVIND had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -79.77%. It is interesting to note that both ARVIND and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Don't tell me what you value, show me your budget, and I'll tell you what you value.
-- Joe Biden

ARVIND is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ARVIND's volatility from 28 Nov, 2018 to 9 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ARVIND has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ARVIND to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ARVIND a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in ARVIND derivatives at this moment can consider 'Long Strangle' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ARVIND. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ARVIND in your portfolio. ARVIND usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in ARVIND), two instruments that deserve special mention are NIFTY-GS-15YRPLUS and ~CHEMICALS. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.