ALEMBIC PHARMA LTD performed worse than the broader market on Friday. It fell by -0.49% to close at 588.5. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 60% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.
APLLTD showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period APLLTD fell by -3.2% and saw a maximum drawdown of -9.48%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in APLLTD till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.
APLLTD has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 12 Jan, 2016 to 7 Jun, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, APLLTD underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.
APLLTD returned losses on 58% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.04% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +8.11%, during this period, on Friday, 30 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 14 Dec, 2018 and ended on 26 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.26% of investor capital.
During the last year APLLTD had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. Profitable number of months of APLLTD and NIFTY-50 index were the same. APLLTD was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -20.1% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. APLLTD had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 4 straight months (from Jun 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered +40.25%.
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APLLTD is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in APLLTD's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 14 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that APLLTD has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than APLLTD. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than APLLTD in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than APLLTD.
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