AIAENG does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

AIA ENGINEERING LIMITED outperformed the broader market on Friday. It increased by +2.27% to close at 1682.35. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 64% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

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Buy-and-Hold investors in AIAENG experienced a maximum drawdown of -11.76% over the last three months. It increased by +10.35% during this strong bullish trending period. There were no long signals during this period. However, the short signal incurred a significant loss, losing -10.35% of investors' capital.

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AIAENG has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 18 Feb, 2016 to 30 Oct, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, AIAENG outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days AIAENG outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months AIAENG delivered losses on 53% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +5.08%) was on Friday, 30 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.9%) was on Wednesday, 21 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +14.79%) started on 23 Oct, 2018 and went on till 30 Oct, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -8.31%) started on 19 Nov, 2018 and went on till 27 Nov, 2018.

The last 12 months saw AIAENG's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. During the last year, AIAENG delivered profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. AIAENG significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +8.27% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. AIAENG had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Mar 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered +7.64%. It is interesting to note that both AIAENG and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If you live for having it all, what you have is never enough.
-- Vicki Robin

AIAENG is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in AIAENG's volatility from 26 Oct, 2018 to 15 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AIAENG has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

AIAENG has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, AIAENG must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AIAENG.

Based on your interest in AIAENG you may find it interesting to know that ASTRAZEN, NIITTECH and IGARASHI are small caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.