Natural Gas Glut THEME

1192.69 +0.17 (+0.01%) Sell

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Prayers for NATURALGAS THEME investors as it destroyed investor wealth

14 min read

Natural Gas Glut significantly underperformed today. It increased by +0.01% to close at 1192.69. During the last week it delivered -4.51% and saw a maximum drawdown of -4.52% before bouncing back.

[Theme constituents]

~NATURALGAS is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 3 bearish signals have generated a profit of +15.95% for investors.


~NATURALGAS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 1 Aug, 2016 to 21 May, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~NATURALGAS underperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days ~NATURALGAS underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months ~NATURALGAS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.4% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.34%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.47%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 15 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.2% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw ~NATURALGAS's investors making profits in 6 months and incurring losses in 6 months. ~NATURALGAS was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. ~NATURALGAS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -14.08% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~NATURALGAS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~NATURALGAS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Finance, like time, devours its own children.
-- Honore de Balzac

~NATURALGAS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~NATURALGAS's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 24 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~NATURALGAS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~NATURALGAS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~NATURALGAS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~NATURALGAS has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~NATURALGAS must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~NATURALGAS.

Based on your interest in ~NATURALGAS you may find it interesting to know that AMZN and V are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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