Modern Warfare THEME

1706.11 +4.63 (+0.27%) Sell

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MODERNWARFARE THEME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

14 min read

Modern Warfare was among the worst performers on Tuesday. It surged by +0.27% to close at 1706.11. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 80% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.

[Theme constituents]

~MODERNWARFARE showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~MODERNWARFARE fell by -14.02% and saw a maximum drawdown of -14.71%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +9.82%.

Trend

~MODERNWARFARE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 12 Feb, 2016 to 18 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~MODERNWARFARE outperformed the SP500 index on 56% days.

~MODERNWARFARE returned losses on 62% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.23% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.33%, during this period, on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.13% of investor capital.

During the last year ~MODERNWARFARE had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. ~MODERNWARFARE returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ~MODERNWARFARE was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -11.49% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~MODERNWARFARE had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~MODERNWARFARE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Well, I think that there's a very thin dividing line between success and failure. And I think if you start a business without financial backing, you're likely to go the wrong side of that dividing line.

~MODERNWARFARE is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~MODERNWARFARE's volatility from 8 Oct, 2018 to 7 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~MODERNWARFARE has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~MODERNWARFARE to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~MODERNWARFARE a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~MODERNWARFARE has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~MODERNWARFARE must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~MODERNWARFARE.

Based on your interest in ~MODERNWARFARE you may find it interesting to know that RHT is a mid cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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