Machinery-Constr And Mining THEME

1403.6 +3.56 (+0.25%) Sell

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MACHINERYCONST THEME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

Machinery-Constr And Mining delivered massive losses today. It gained +0.25% to close at 1403.6. It's recent 5 day performance has been -1.03%, -0.49%, -0.84%, +2.45% and -0.38%.

[Theme constituents]

~MACHINERYCONST showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~MACHINERYCONST returned -23.41% and saw a maximum drawdown of -24.82%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +10.87% to investors.


~MACHINERYCONST has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 19 Jan, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~MACHINERYCONST outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

~MACHINERYCONST returned losses on 62% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.4% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.53%, during this period, on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and went on till 1 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -4.75% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 29 Oct, 2018 and ended on 1 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +12.0% to investors.

On monthly basis, ~MACHINERYCONST delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. ~MACHINERYCONST delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. ~MACHINERYCONST was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -14.85% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~MACHINERYCONST had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~MACHINERYCONST and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The difference between succeeding and failing is consistency.
-- Don Connelly

~MACHINERYCONST is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~MACHINERYCONST's volatility from 2 Oct, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~MACHINERYCONST has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~MACHINERYCONST. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ~MACHINERYCONST in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~MACHINERYCONST.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~MACHINERYCONST), if you are an investor in ICPT, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.

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