Lodging THEME

899.868 -0.97 (-0.11%) Sell

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LODGING THEME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

14 min read

Lodging is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Tuesday. It returned -0.11% to close at 899.868. It is currently trading -24% below it's 52 week high of 1186.01.

[Theme constituents]

~LODGING is currently in a down trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +14.32% for investors in the last three months.

Trend

~LODGING has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 1 year 1 month and 1 day, ~LODGING underperformed the SP500 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days ~LODGING underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months ~LODGING was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.22% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.66%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.81%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 18 Oct, 2018 and went on till 24 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -12.27% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 21 Nov, 2018 and ended on 28 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +8.7% to investors.

On monthly basis, ~LODGING delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. ~LODGING delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. ~LODGING was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -14.1% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~LODGING had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -19.42%. It is interesting to note that both ~LODGING and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"There are no patents in finance.

~LODGING is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~LODGING's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~LODGING has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~LODGING. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ~LODGING in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~LODGING.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~LODGING), two small cap instruments that deserve special mention are AAXN and ZBRA. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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