Hot Retail THEME

1493.39 +11.22 (+0.75%) Sell

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Stop-loss on the minds of HOTRETAIL THEME investors as it ranked among the worst performers

14 min read

~HOTRETAIL was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in Hot Retail made +0.06% per day. Tuesday's performance of +0.75% was a significant outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Theme constituents]

Buy-and-Hold investors in ~HOTRETAIL experienced a maximum drawdown of -19.2% over the last three months. It lost -18.07% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +12.55%.

Trend

~HOTRETAIL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 10 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~HOTRETAIL outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

~HOTRETAIL returned losses on 59% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.3% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -5.4%, during this period, on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 25 Sep, 2018 and went on till 27 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +0.67% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 28 Sep, 2018 and ended on 5 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.22% of investor capital.

~HOTRETAIL had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ~HOTRETAIL underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. ~HOTRETAIL significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +11.48% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ~HOTRETAIL had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~HOTRETAIL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Anyone who thinks there's safety in numbers hasn't looked at the stock market pages.
-- Irene Peter

~HOTRETAIL is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~HOTRETAIL's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~HOTRETAIL has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~HOTRETAIL to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~HOTRETAIL a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~HOTRETAIL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~HOTRETAIL must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~HOTRETAIL.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~HOTRETAIL), three instruments that have performed similar to ~HOTRETAIL are ~CONNECTEDCAR, CBU and CUBE. They must all be evaluated as alternative investment options and for diversification.

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