Hand Machine Tools THEME

1243.55 +21.55 (+1.73%) Sell

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HANDTOOLS THEME shows sign of weakness as investors do cost averaging

14 min read

Hand Machine Tools is looking better than most other alternatives today. It grew by +1.73% to close at 1243.55. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.6%, -1.07%, -1.82%, +3.27% and +1.05%.

[Theme constituents]

~HANDTOOLS showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~HANDTOOLS lost -16.66% and saw a maximum drawdown of -20.35%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +6.82% to investors.

Trend

~HANDTOOLS has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~HANDTOOLS underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days ~HANDTOOLS underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months ~HANDTOOLS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.28% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.27%) was on Wednesday, 12 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.53%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 12 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -10.27% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 30 Oct, 2018 and ended on 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +6.53% to investors.

~HANDTOOLS had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ~HANDTOOLS underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. ~HANDTOOLS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -15.84% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~HANDTOOLS had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -10.62%.

"The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.

~HANDTOOLS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~HANDTOOLS's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 24 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~HANDTOOLS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~HANDTOOLS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~HANDTOOLS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~HANDTOOLS has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~HANDTOOLS must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~HANDTOOLS.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~HANDTOOLS), three instruments that deserve special mention are TNDM, NFEC and PRQR. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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