1256.49 -6.88 (-0.55%) Sell

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Looking to invest in GARPLOWPEG THEME? Avoid at the moment as it was among the worst performers

14 min read

Garp was among the worst performers on Tuesday. It fell by -0.55% to close at 1256.49. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 73% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.

[Theme constituents]

~GARPLOWPEG showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~GARPLOWPEG fell by -16.32% and saw a maximum drawdown of -17.05%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +16.32%.


~GARPLOWPEG has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 19 Jan, 2016 to 3 Feb, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~GARPLOWPEG underperformed the SP500 index on 45% days. Which indicates that on days ~GARPLOWPEG underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

~GARPLOWPEG returned losses on 62% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.27% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.3%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.82% of investor capital.

During the last year ~GARPLOWPEG had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. ~GARPLOWPEG returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ~GARPLOWPEG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -9.3% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~GARPLOWPEG had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~GARPLOWPEG and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Buy when everyone else is selling and hold until everyone else is buying. That's not just a catchy slogan. It's the very essence of successful investing.
-- J. Paul Getty

~GARPLOWPEG is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~GARPLOWPEG's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~GARPLOWPEG has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~GARPLOWPEG to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~GARPLOWPEG a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~GARPLOWPEG has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~GARPLOWPEG must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~GARPLOWPEG.

Based on your interest in ~GARPLOWPEG you may find it interesting to know that EW and ABMD are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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