Garp was among the worst performers on Tuesday. It fell by -0.55% to close at 1256.49. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 73% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.
~GARPLOWPEG showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~GARPLOWPEG fell by -16.32% and saw a maximum drawdown of -17.05%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +16.32%.
~GARPLOWPEG has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 19 Jan, 2016 to 3 Feb, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~GARPLOWPEG underperformed the SP500 index on 45% days. Which indicates that on days ~GARPLOWPEG underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
~GARPLOWPEG returned losses on 62% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.27% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.3%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.82% of investor capital.
During the last year ~GARPLOWPEG had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. ~GARPLOWPEG returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ~GARPLOWPEG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -9.3% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~GARPLOWPEG had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~GARPLOWPEG and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Buy when everyone else is selling and hold until everyone else is buying. That's not just a catchy slogan. It's the very essence of successful investing.
-- J. Paul Getty
~GARPLOWPEG is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~GARPLOWPEG's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~GARPLOWPEG has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~GARPLOWPEG to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~GARPLOWPEG a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
~GARPLOWPEG has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~GARPLOWPEG must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~GARPLOWPEG.
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