Transporting America THEME

1513.02 +6.76 (+0.45%) Sell

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FREIGHT THEME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

14 min read

~FREIGHT significantly underperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in Transporting America made +0.06% per day. Tuesday's performance of +0.45% was a outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Theme constituents]

~FREIGHT showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~FREIGHT delivered -16.41% and saw a maximum drawdown of -16.9%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +9.21% to investors.


~FREIGHT has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 14 Jan, 2016 to 10 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~FREIGHT outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months ~FREIGHT was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.27% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.8%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.38%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.66% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw ~FREIGHT's investors making profits in 8 months and incurring losses in 4 months. During the last year, ~FREIGHT and SP500 index had the same number of profitable months. ~FREIGHT was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -12.19% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~FREIGHT had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~FREIGHT and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants.

~FREIGHT is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~FREIGHT's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~FREIGHT has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~FREIGHT to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~FREIGHT a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~FREIGHT has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~FREIGHT must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~FREIGHT.

Based on your interest in ~FREIGHT you may find it interesting to know that RGSE, AYTU and TYHT have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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