Consumer Non Cyclical THEME

1240.84 -13.3 (-1.07%) Sell

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Stop-loss on the minds of CONSUMERNONCYCL THEME investors as it destroyed investor wealth

14 min read

Consumer Non Cyclical ranked among the worst performers on Tuesday. It lost -1.07% to close at 1240.84. It is currently trading +11% above it's 52 week low of 1113.38 and is down only -7% from it's 52 week high.

[Theme constituents]

~CONSUMERNONCYCL is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +2.37% for investors.


~CONSUMERNONCYCL has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, ~CONSUMERNONCYCL underperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days ~CONSUMERNONCYCL underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months ~CONSUMERNONCYCL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.07% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.6%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.38%) was on Friday, 14 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 25 Sep, 2018 and went on till 3 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +2.5% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 22 Oct, 2018 and ended on 26 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.61% of investor capital.

~CONSUMERNONCYCL had 8 profitable and 4 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, number of profitable months of ~CONSUMERNONCYCL and SP500 index were the same. ~CONSUMERNONCYCL was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -7.85% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~CONSUMERNONCYCL and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both ~CONSUMERNONCYCL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

A stock broker is one who invests other people's money until its all gone.
-- Woody Allen

~CONSUMERNONCYCL is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~CONSUMERNONCYCL's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~CONSUMERNONCYCL has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~CONSUMERNONCYCL to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~CONSUMERNONCYCL a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~CONSUMERNONCYCL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~CONSUMERNONCYCL must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~CONSUMERNONCYCL.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~CONSUMERNONCYCL), LULU is a mid cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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