Consumer Cyclical THEME

1249.89 -31.13 (-2.49%) Sell

Optimize theme

Don't buy CONSUMERCYCL THEME now, it is a risky investment

14 min read

Consumer Cyclical delivered massive losses on Friday. It returned -2.49% to close at 1249.89. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 70% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0233%.

[Theme constituents]

~CONSUMERCYCL showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~CONSUMERCYCL returned -6.42% and saw a maximum drawdown of -8.87%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +2.83% to investors.


~CONSUMERCYCL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 21 Mar, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, ~CONSUMERCYCL underperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days ~CONSUMERCYCL underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

~CONSUMERCYCL returned losses on 51% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.1% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -3.27%, during this period, on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 6 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +5.55% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 14 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -3.82% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, ~CONSUMERCYCL delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. ~CONSUMERCYCL delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. ~CONSUMERCYCL was also a less risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -4.09% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ~CONSUMERCYCL had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~CONSUMERCYCL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks.
-- John Bogle

~CONSUMERCYCL is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~CONSUMERCYCL's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~CONSUMERCYCL has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~CONSUMERCYCL to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~CONSUMERCYCL a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~CONSUMERCYCL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~CONSUMERCYCL must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~CONSUMERCYCL.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~CONSUMERCYCL), AMRN has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

Want to improve your Portfolio's performance?

Spotalpha's Portfolio optimizer is all you need to improve your returns and reduce your risk.
Optimize Portfolio NOW
Symbol Price {{retType}} | Tr.
{{detail.symbol}} {{detail.close}} {{detail.priceChange}}  {{detail.pctChange}}%  {{}} {{detail.trend}} 
If you liked what you read here ...

... we have a small favour to ask. Help us bring the power of algorithmic trading strategies to individual investors.

All content in this article was automatically generated by algorithms. This ensures that there are no human biases in the analysis provided. This approach to investing is not new and has been around for more than three decades. Yet, it has been available to only the most affluent or elite investors leaving individual investors to trade on emotions (such as fear and greed), intuition and poor analysis from third-parties. We want to change this.

We want to empower investors with all the tools and analysis required by them to make a rational investment decision.

If you found Spotalpha useful, consider making a contribution. For as little as $5 you can support our efforts and it takes less than a minute. Thank you. Contribute
Share with friends   WhatsApp   Facebook   Twitter