Caffeine THEME

1296.2 -24.65 (-1.9%) Sell

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CAFFEINE THEME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

Caffeine significantly underperformed today. It lost -1.9% to close at 1296.2. During the last week it lost -2.14% and saw a maximum drawdown of -2.37% before bouncing back.

[Theme constituents]

~CAFFEINE is currently in a down trend. The previous short signal in ~CAFFEINE has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on ~CAFFEINE at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.


~CAFFEINE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 22 Aug, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, ~CAFFEINE outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months ~CAFFEINE was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.1% per day. It's best return during this period (of +1.82%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -1.9%) was on Friday, 14 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and went on till 26 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -2.11% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 1 Nov, 2018 and ended on 9 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +6.04% to investors.

~CAFFEINE had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ~CAFFEINE underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. ~CAFFEINE was also a less risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -6.0% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ~CAFFEINE had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~CAFFEINE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

George Soros is one of the few characters from the world of finance who deserves to be called larger-than-life.
-- Gary Weiss

~CAFFEINE is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~CAFFEINE's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 13 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~CAFFEINE has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~CAFFEINE to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~CAFFEINE a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~CAFFEINE has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~CAFFEINE must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~CAFFEINE.

On a general note (since you are interested in ~CAFFEINE), SBOT has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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