Agriculture THEME

1280.05 -18.89 (-1.48%) Sell

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Looking to invest in AGRICULTURE THEME? Avoid at the moment as it ranked among the worst performers

14 min read

Agriculture ranked among the worst performers on Tuesday. It fell by -1.48% to close at 1280.05. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 73% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.

[Theme constituents]

~AGRICULTURE showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~AGRICULTURE fell by -15.71% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.32%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +13.84% to investors.

Trend

~AGRICULTURE has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 18 Jan, 2018 to 24 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 7 months and 7 days, ~AGRICULTURE outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months ~AGRICULTURE was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.27% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.0%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.76%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.1% of investor capital.

During the last year ~AGRICULTURE had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. ~AGRICULTURE returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ~AGRICULTURE was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -9.33% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. ~AGRICULTURE had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ~AGRICULTURE and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Success seems to be connected with action. Successful people keep moving. They make mistakes, but they don't quit.
-- Conrad Hilton

~AGRICULTURE is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~AGRICULTURE's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 18 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~AGRICULTURE has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~AGRICULTURE to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~AGRICULTURE a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

~AGRICULTURE has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ~AGRICULTURE must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~AGRICULTURE.

Based on your interest in ~AGRICULTURE you may find it interesting to know that AMZN, MSFT and CSCO are large caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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