WABASH NATIONAL CORP

12.97 -0.3 (-2.33%) Sell

WNC is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

WABASH NATIONAL CORP delivered massive losses today. It fell by -2.33% to close at 12.97. During the last week it fell by -3.14% and saw a maximum drawdown of -4.7% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing WNC]

Buy-and-Hold investors in WNC experienced a maximum drawdown of -33.2% over the last three months. It fell by -31.63% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +25.16%.

Trend

WNC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 26 Apr, 2017 to 19 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, WNC underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days WNC underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

WNC returned losses on 62% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.53% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -19.14%, during this period, on Friday, 12 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +22.31%) started on 25 Oct, 2018 and went on till 1 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -26.48%) started on 5 Oct, 2018 and went on till 12 Oct, 2018.

During the last year WNC had 3 profitable months and 9 loss making months. WNC returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. WNC significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +17.52% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. WNC had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -28.93%. It is interesting to note that both WNC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless.

WNC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in WNC's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that WNC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect WNC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes WNC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than WNC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than WNC in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than WNC.

Based on your interest in WNC you may find it interesting to know that CMCL and LIVN have both performed similar to WNC and can be considered by investors as alternative investment options.

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