VIVINT SOLAR, INC.

5.0 -0.12 (-2.34%) Sell

Doubt in the minds of VSLR investors as it delivered massive losses

13 min read

VIVINT SOLAR, INC. was among the worst performers today. It fell by -2.34% to close at 5.0. It's recent 5 day performance has been -3.03%, +1.15%, -3.33%, +1.12% and -4.13%.

[Themes containing VSLR]

VSLR is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for VSLR's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned +2.04%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to VSLR.

Trend

VSLR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 6 Jan, 2016 to 1 Feb, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 8 days, VSLR underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months VSLR was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.13% per day. It's best return during this period (of +14.29%) was on Monday, 26 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -21.86%) was on Friday, 30 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 profitable days, which started on 13 Sep, 2018 and went on till 24 Sep, 2018. This bullish trend returned +6.99% to investors.

During the last year VSLR had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. VSLR returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. VSLR significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jun 2018, when it returned +23.75% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. VSLR had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both VSLR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

You must gain control over your money or the lack of it will forever control you.
-- Dave Ramsey

VSLR is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in VSLR's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 11 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VSLR has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than VSLR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than VSLR in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than VSLR.

Based on your interest in VSLR you may find it interesting to know that ZBRA and HQY are both small caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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