5.42 -0.24 (-4.41%) Sell

VSI is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

VITAMIN SHOPPE, INC. delivered massive losses today. It lost -4.41% to close at 5.42. It's recent 5 day performance has been -9.13%, +5.41%, -7.79%, -3.46% and -7.77%.

[Themes containing VSI]

VSI is currently in a down trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +47.63% for investors in the last three months.


VSI has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 7 Jan, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, VSI underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months VSI was mostly loss making and delivered on average -1.19% per day. It's best return during this period (of +13.14%) was on Tuesday, 13 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -14.54%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 26 Sep, 2018 and went on till 2 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -17.17% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 27 Nov, 2018 and ended on 30 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +12.89% to investors.

VSI had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, VSI underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. VSI significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +53.29% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. VSI and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both VSI and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.
-- Thomas Jefferson

VSI is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in VSI's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 25 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VSI has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect VSI to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes VSI a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than VSI. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than VSI in your portfolio. VSI usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in VSI you may find it interesting to know that PTSI and IMI have both performed similar to VSI and can be considered by investors as alternative investment options.

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