VARONIS SYSTEMS INC

56.51 -1.08 (-1.91%) Sell

VRNS is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

VRNS was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in VARONIS SYSTEMS INC made +0.02% per day. Friday's performance of -1.91% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing VRNS]

VRNS showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period VRNS fell by -24.05% and saw a maximum drawdown of -29.03%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +16.88%.

Trend

VRNS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 9 Feb, 2016 to 18 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, VRNS outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

VRNS returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.39% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -10.33%, during this period, on Monday, 19 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -15.73% of investor capital.

During the last year VRNS had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. VRNS returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. VRNS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +23.63% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. VRNS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.

Every time you borrow money, you're robbing your future self.
-- Nathan W. Morris

VRNS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in VRNS's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 28 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VRNS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect VRNS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes VRNS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than VRNS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than VRNS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than VRNS.

Based on your interest in VRNS you may find it interesting to know that TWTR and AMD are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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