VEON LTD. (FOREIGN)

2.46 -0.05 (-1.99%) Sell

Prayers for VEON investors as it was among the worst performers

13 min read

VEON LTD. (Foreign) was among the worst performers on Thursday. It delivered -1.99% to close at 2.46. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 7% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.

[Themes containing VEON]

Buy-and-Hold investors in VEON experienced a maximum drawdown of -16.33% over the last three months. It delivered -12.77% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +13.38%.

Trend

VEON has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 11 Aug, 2016 to 8 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, VEON underperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months VEON was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.2% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.67%) was on Thursday, 29 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.01%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 8 Oct, 2018 and ended on 12 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.28% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw VEON's investors making profits in 2 months and incurring losses in 10 months. VEON was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. VEON significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jul 2018, when it returned +27.04% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. VEON had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Mar 2018) during which period it delivered -35.16%. It is interesting to note that both VEON and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The stock market is a discounter of all known information.
-- Kenneth Fisher

VEON is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in VEON's volatility from 2 Oct, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VEON has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than VEON. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than VEON in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than VEON.

On a general note (since you are interested in VEON), three instruments that deserve special mention are APRN, ~SMALLCAP and AYTU. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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