MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORP

71.76 -2.1 (-2.92%) Sell

Want to invest in VAC? Avoid as it has destroyed investor wealth

13 min read

MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORP has destroyed investor wealth today. It returned -2.92% to close at 71.76. It's recent 5 day performance has been +1.82%, -3.69%, -3.16%, -8.49% and +4.75%.

[Themes containing VAC]

VAC showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period VAC returned -34.67% and saw a maximum drawdown of -39.26%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +34.67%.

Trend

VAC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 31 Jan, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, VAC outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months VAC was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.63% per day. It's best return during this period (of +9.71%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.49%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 1 Oct, 2018 and went on till 11 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -17.45% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 30 Oct, 2018 and ended on 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +15.29% to investors.

On monthly basis, VAC delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. VAC delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. VAC was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -18.82% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. VAC had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -27.36%. It is interesting to note that both VAC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I never dreamed about success, I worked for it.
-- Estee Lauder

VAC is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in VAC's volatility from 26 Sep, 2018 to 12 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VAC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect VAC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes VAC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than VAC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than VAC in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than VAC.

Based on your interest in VAC you may find it interesting to know that CSCO and AMZN are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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