UNIVERSAL CORP

57.95 -1.06 (-1.83%) Sell

UVV is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

UNIVERSAL CORP ranked among the worst performers today. It returned -1.83% to close at 57.95. It's recent 5 day performance has been -3.95%, -3.21%, -1.67%, +1.93% and +1.42%.

[Themes containing UVV]

UVV showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period UVV returned -11.53% and saw a maximum drawdown of -17.11%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +10.36%.

Trend

UVV has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 8 Feb, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, UVV underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days UVV underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

UVV returned losses on 58% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.18% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -4.54%, during this period, on Monday, 24 Sep, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 9 Oct, 2018 and went on till 12 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -3.13% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 2 Nov, 2018 and ended on 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +4.12% to investors.

On monthly basis, UVV delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. UVV delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. UVV significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +40.6% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. UVV had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both UVV and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Experience taught me a few things. One is to listen to your gut, no matter how good something sounds on paper. The second is that you're generally better off sticking with what you know. And the third is that sometimes your best investments are the ones you don't make.

UVV is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in UVV's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 9 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that UVV has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than UVV. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than UVV in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than UVV.

On a general note (since you are interested in UVV), three instruments that deserve special mention are NSPR, AYTU and AMRH. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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