122.93 -1.72 (-1.4%) Sell

Don't invest in USNA now, it is a risky investment

13 min read

USANA HEALTH SCIENCES INC is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Thursday. It lost -1.4% to close at 122.93. It is currently trading +73% above it's 52 week low of 70.75 and is down only -9% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing USNA]

USNA showed a down trend over the last 3 months. During this period USNA lost -3.36% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.23%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in USNA till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.


USNA has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, USNA outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months USNA delivered profits on 50% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +5.78%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.85%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 11 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -11.04% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 23 Nov, 2018 and ended on 30 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +2.45% to investors.

USNA had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, USNA underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. USNA significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +23.02% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. USNA had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both USNA and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"You don't want to have so much money going toward your mortgage every month that you can't enjoy life or take care of your other financial responsibilities.

USNA is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in USNA's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 30 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that USNA has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than USNA. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than USNA in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than USNA.

Based on your interest in USNA you may find it interesting to know that NSPR and AYTU have both shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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