UNION PACIFIC CORP

142.57 -3.2 (-2.24%) Sell

UNP is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

UNION PACIFIC CORP delivered massive losses on Friday. It lost -2.24% to close at 142.57. It is currently trading -13% below it's 52 week high of 164.99.

[Themes containing UNP]

Buy-and-Hold investors in UNP experienced a maximum drawdown of -14.87% over the last three months. It lost -9.02% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +0.44%.

Trend

UNP has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 8 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, UNP outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months UNP was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.13% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.46%) was on Tuesday, 18 Sep, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.03%) was on Tuesday, 20 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +4.49% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 11 Dec, 2018 and ended on 14 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -3.74% of investor capital.

UNP had 7 profitable and 5 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, UNP underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. UNP was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -11.0% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. UNP had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.

UNP is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in UNP's volatility from 1 Oct, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that UNP has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect UNP to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes UNP a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in UNP derivatives at this moment can consider 'Bull Call Spread' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

UNP has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, UNP must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than UNP.

On a general note (since you are interested in UNP), DFBG has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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