ULTIMATE SOFTWARE GROUP INC

255.91 +4.79 (+1.87%) Buy

Don't profit book on ULTI now, it outperformed most of it's peers

13 min read

ULTIMATE SOFTWARE GROUP INC outperformed the broader market on Thursday. It increased by +1.87% to close at 255.91. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 8% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.

[Themes containing ULTI]

ULTI showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ULTI fell by -22.62% and saw a maximum drawdown of -28.43%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +12.17% to investors.

Trend

ULTI has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 20 Sep, 2017 to 14 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, ULTI outperformed the SP500 index on 55% days.

During the last three months ULTI was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.38% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.66%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.16%) was on Monday, 19 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 26 Oct, 2018 and ended on 6 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.45% of investor capital.

During the last year ULTI had 8 profitable months and 4 loss making months. Profitable number of months of ULTI and SP500 index were the same. ULTI was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -16.86% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ULTI had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ULTI and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Behind every stock is a company. Find out what It's doing.

ULTI is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ULTI's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ULTI has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ULTI to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ULTI a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ULTI. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ULTI in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ULTI.

On a general note (since you are interested in ULTI), three instruments that deserve special mention are HEAR, NIHD and NFEC. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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