12.55 0.0 (0.0%) Buy

Search for alternative investments is on for UGP investors as it ranked worse than it's peers

13 min read

ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS INC (Foreign) underperformed today. It returned 0.0% to close at 12.55. During the last week it gained +2.2% and saw a maximum drawdown of -2.11% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing UGP]

Buy-and-Hold investors in UGP experienced a maximum drawdown of -16.23% over the last three months. It gained +31.97% during this strong up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.


UGP has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, UGP underperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days UGP underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

UGP was profitable on 52% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.5% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +8.8%, during this period, on Monday, 8 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 19 Sep, 2018 and went on till 21 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -4.15% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 1 Oct, 2018 and ended on 3 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +11.03% to investors.

On monthly basis, UGP delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. UGP delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. UGP significantly outperformed SP500 index in Oct 2018, when it returned +27.02% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. UGP had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 8 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered -91.21%. It is interesting to note that both UGP and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

You must gain control over your money or the lack of it will forever control you.
-- Dave Ramsey

UGP is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in UGP's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that UGP has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

UGP has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, UGP must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than UGP.

Based on your interest in UGP you may find it interesting to know that NVCN is highly volatile and investors investing in it must take extreme caution. Consider either reducing your exposure to NVCN or sufficiently diversifying your portfolio.

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