39.49 -0.48 (-1.23%) Sell

UFS is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

UFS delivered massive losses today. On a longer term basis, investors in DOMTAR CORP made -0.0% per day. Tuesday's performance of -1.23% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing UFS]

Buy-and-Hold investors in UFS experienced a maximum drawdown of -27.39% over the last three months. It lost -25.62% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +18.5%.


UFS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 14 Apr, 2016. UFS is currently at it's worst performance to the SP500 index and therefore does not make a good investment candidate. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, UFS underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days UFS underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months UFS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.45% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.74%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.48%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 2 Oct, 2018 and went on till 12 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -15.45% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 30 Oct, 2018 and ended on 5 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +10.01% to investors.

UFS had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, UFS underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. UFS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -12.85% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. UFS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both UFS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

When buying shares, ask yourself, would you buy the whole company?
-- Rene Rivkin

UFS is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in UFS's volatility from 24 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that UFS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than UFS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than UFS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than UFS.

Based on your interest in UFS you may find it interesting to know that APRN has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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