12.37 -0.18 (-1.43%) Sell

UBS investors looking to exit as part of sectoral rotation

13 min read

UBS GROUP AG (Foreign) significantly underperformed today. It delivered -1.43% to close at 12.37. It's recent 5 day performance has been -0.71%, +3.27%, -1.13%, -1.51% and -2.18%.

[Themes containing UBS]

UBS is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +17.09% for investors in the last three months.


UBS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 4 Jan, 2016 to 11 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, UBS underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months UBS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.36% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.26%) was on Thursday, 20 Sep, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.79%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and ended on 2 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.83% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw UBS's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. UBS was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. UBS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -10.73% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. UBS had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -26.23%. It is interesting to note that both UBS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

You must gain control over your money or the lack of it will forever control you.
-- Dave Ramsey

UBS is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in UBS's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 13 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that UBS has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect UBS to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes UBS a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than UBS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than UBS in your portfolio. UBS usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in UBS you may find it interesting to know that ~ONLINEGAMING has delivered similar performance as UBS and can be considered as an alternative investment candidate (to UBS).

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