27.71 -0.36 (-1.28%) Sell

TVTY is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

TIVITY HEALTH, INC. was among the worst performers on Thursday. It returned -1.28% to close at 27.71. It is currently trading -33% below it's 52 week high of 41.5.

[Themes containing TVTY]

TVTY is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for TVTY's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -18.5%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to TVTY.


TVTY has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 3 Nov, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, TVTY outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

TVTY was profitable on 57% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.2% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -31.91%, during this period, on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 12 Oct, 2018 and went on till 17 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +5.31% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 13 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.48% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, TVTY delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. TVTY delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. TVTY was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -32.35% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TVTY had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both TVTY and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants.

TVTY is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TVTY's volatility from 20 Sep, 2018 to 10 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TVTY has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TVTY to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TVTY a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TVTY. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TVTY in your portfolio. TVTY usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in TVTY you may find it interesting to know that UNH, CSCO and PFE are large caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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