13.62 -0.07 (-0.51%) Sell

TV is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

GRUPO TELEVISA, S.A.B. (Foreign) significantly underperformed today. It returned -0.51% to close at 13.62. During the last week it returned -0.22% and saw a maximum drawdown of -3.13% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing TV]

TV is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +17.0% for investors.


TV has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, TV underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months TV was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.37% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.4%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.63%) was on Thursday, 8 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 10 Sep, 2018 and went on till 19 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.78% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 22 Oct, 2018 and ended on 29 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -16.07% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, TV delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. TV delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. TV was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -19.66% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TV had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -35.87%. It is interesting to note that both TV and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Never invest emergency savings in the stock market.
-- Suze Orman

TV is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TV's volatility from 1 Oct, 2018 to 14 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TV has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

TV has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, TV must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TV.

On a general note (since you are interested in TV), AYTU has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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