34.91 +0.88 (+2.53%) Sell

TUP does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORP outperformed today. It surged by +2.53% to close at 34.91. During the last week it fell by -3.32% and saw a maximum drawdown of -5.7% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing TUP]

Buy-and-Hold investors in TUP experienced a maximum drawdown of -12.98% over the last three months. It surged by +5.53% during this bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals.


TUP has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 25 Apr, 2017 to 4 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, TUP underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days TUP underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

TUP returned losses on 55% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.13% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +14.62%, during this period, on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 5 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +20.75%) started on 19 Oct, 2018 and went on till 25 Oct, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -10.71%) started on 3 Dec, 2018 and went on till 10 Dec, 2018.

During the last year TUP had 3 profitable months and 9 loss making months. TUP returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. TUP was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -15.08% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. TUP had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 8 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Aug 2018) during which period it delivered -57.24%.

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TUP is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TUP's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TUP has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TUP to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TUP a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TUP. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TUP in your portfolio. TUP usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in TUP), two instruments that deserve special mention are APRN and EPIX. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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