TOTAL SYSTEM SERVICES INC

84.89 -1.52 (-1.79%) Sell

TSS is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

TSS delivered massive losses today. On a longer term basis, investors in TOTAL SYSTEM SERVICES INC made -0.09% per day. Friday's performance of -1.79% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing TSS]

Buy-and-Hold investors in TSS experienced a maximum drawdown of -17.0% over the last three months. It fell by -14.15% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +12.34%.

Trend

TSS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 28 Jan, 2016 to 12 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, TSS outperformed the SP500 index on 55% days.

During the last three months TSS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.23% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.25%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.06%) was on Monday, 19 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.69% of investor capital.

During the last year TSS had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. TSS returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. TSS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +13.23% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. TSS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both TSS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Success seems to be connected with action. Successful people keep moving. They make mistakes, but they don't quit.
-- Conrad Hilton

TSS is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TSS's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TSS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect TSS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes TSS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TSS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than TSS in your portfolio. TSS usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in TSS you may find it interesting to know that EPIX and AYTU have both shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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